考虑事故风险损失的爆炸物品经济订货批量模型研究

爆炸物品在储存过程中存在发生爆炸事故,从而给人类和环境带来伤害的可能,因此在对爆炸物品进行采购决策时必需考虑由此带来的风险损失.在给出爆炸物品事故风险损失度量方法的基础上,建立了爆炸物品的经济订货批量模型,证明了模型存在唯一最优解,并给出了模型的求解步骤,为相关企业合理制定采购决策提供了理论依据.数字算例分析了事故概率、赔偿标准、单位库存费、单次采购费对最优批量的影响,比较了考虑事故风险损失与否时的最优批量,结果表明,当事故概率或赔偿标准较高时,两者对应的最优批量差异明显.这也说明,当事故概率或赔偿标准达到一定程度时,考虑事故风险损失是十分必要的.     

Lot‐sizing policies for deterioration items under two‐level trade credit with partial trade credit to credit‐risk retailer and limited storage capacity

The main purpose of this article is to investigate the optimal wholesaler's replenishment decisions for deterioration items under two levels of the trade credit policy and two storage facilities in order to reflect the supply chain management situation within the economic order quantity framework. In this study, each of the following assumptions have been made: (1) The own warehouse with limited capacity always is not sufficient to store the order quantity, so that a rented warehouse is needed to store the excess units over the capacity of the own warehouse; (2) The wholesaler always obtains the partial trade credit, which is independent of the order quantity offered by the supplier, but the wholesaler offers the full trade credit to the retailer; (3) The wholesaler must take a loan to pay his or her supplier the partial payment immediately when the order is received and then pay off the loan with the entire revenue. Under these three conditions, the wholesaler can obtain the least costs. Furthermore, this study models the wholesaler's optimal replenishment decisions under the aforementioned conditions in the supply chain management. Two theorems are developed to efficiently determine the optimal replenishment decisions for the wholesaler. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the theorems that are proven in this study, and the sensitivity analysis with respect to the major parameters in this study is performed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transport of airborne particulate matters originating from Mentougou, Beijing, China

In this study, a coupled regional air quality modeling system is applied to investigate the time spatial variations in airborne particulate matters （PM10）, originating from Mentougou to Beijing municipal area in the period of April 1-7, 2004, and the influences of complex terrain and meteorological conditions upon boundary layer structure and PM10 concentration distributions. An intercomparison of the performance with CALPUFF against the observed data is presented and an examination of scatter plots is provided. The statistics show that the correlation coefficient and STD between the modeled and observed data are 0.86 and 0.03, respectively. Analysis of model results illustrates that the pollutants emitted from Mentougou can be transported to Beijing municipal area along certain transport pathways, and PM10 concentration distributions show heterogeneity characteristics. Contributions of the Mentougou sources to the PM10 concentrations in Beijing municipal area are up to 0.1-15 μg/m^3.     

U.S. EPA Regulatory Perspectives on the Use of QSAR for New and Existing Chemical Evaluations

Abstract

As testing is not required, ecotoxicity or fate data are available for ≈ 5% of the approximately 2,300 new chemicals/year (26,000 + total) submitted to the US-EPA. The EPA's Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics (OPPT) regulatory program was forced to develop and rely upon QSARs to estimate the ecotoxicity and fate of most of the new chemicals evaluated for hazard and risk assessment. QSAR methods routinely result in ecotoxicity estimations of acute and chronic toxicity to fish, aquatic invertebrates, and algae, and in fate estimations of physical/chemical properties, degradation, and bioconcentration. The EPA's Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) Inventory of existing chemicals currently lists over 72,000 chemicals. Most existing chemicals also appear to have little or no ecotoxicity or fate data available and the OPPT new chemical QSAR methods now provide predictions and cross-checks of test data for the regulation of existing chemicals. Examples include the Toxics Release Inventory (TRI), the Design for the Environment (DfE), and the OECD/SIDS/HPV Programs. QSAR screening of the TSCA Inventory has prioritized thousands of existing chemicals for possible regulatory testing of: 1) persistent bioaccumulative chemicals, and 2) the high ecotoxicity of specific discrete organic chemicals.     

On the strategy of supply chain collaboration based on dynamic inventory target level management: A theory of constraint perspective

After the financial tsunami in 2008, how to adjust the target inventory level dynamically and instantly in order to reduce the risk that an enterprise encountered in a rapid demand changing market has become a crucial issue in the field of supply chain management. This paper explores the strategies of supply chain collaboration by utilizing theory of constraint to achieve the goal of adjusting the target inventory level dynamically. Three time-series-data-mining techniques – Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT), CUSUM chart and Auto-regression Test (AR(1)) are used to detect the timing of market demand change. The results are used to adjust the target inventory level. Simulation techniques are used to explore the relative efficiency of the demand-change detection for the three methods. The techniques are also used to explore the effectiveness of various inventory management strategies on inventory performance based on the three demand change detection methods.     

DYNAMIC STEREOCHEMISTRY OF SYMMETRICALLY BUT DIFFERENTLY SUBSTITUTED DIPHOSPHANES

Abstract

The main interest of our work in Bonn during the last years was in the field of phosphorus-carbon compounds with multiple bonds. Beside the synthesis of new classes of compounds we were particularly interested in the amazing analogy between the PC- and the CC-double bond, which could be proved by evidence of E/Z isomers and a clear indication of pericyclic reactions.     

Well adjusted: Using expediting and cancelation to manage store replenishment inventory for a seasonal good

We consider an inventory problem that can be translated into a two-period newsvendor setting where the day prior to sales, the newsvendor places an initial preliminary order—a semi-binding forecast—with the publisher. At the beginning of the actual day of sales, the newsvendor has a better forecast for the day’s demand: based on knowing the actual content of the paper, he knows whether it will be a high-demand day due to breaking news or a low-demand day due to slow news. He then can revise the preliminary order quantity by expediting additional papers or canceling all or part of the order, but each of these activities has an associated cost.     

The long‐term extreme price risk measure of portfolio in inventory financing: An application to dynamic impawn rate interval

Different from the short‐term risk measure for traditional financial assets (stocks, bonds, etc.), the key to illiquid inventory portfolio traded in the over‐the‐counter markets is to estimate the long‐term extreme price risk with time varying volatility. In this article, a new long‐term extreme price risk (value at risk and conditional value at risk) measure method for inventory portfolio and an application to dynamic impawn rate interval are proposed. To realize this, we first establish AutoRegressive Moving Average‐Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity‐Extreme Value Theory model and multivariatet‐Copula to depict the autocorrelation, fat tails, and volatility clustering of returns of inventories and the nonlinear dependence structure of inventories. Furthermore, we obtain the long‐term extreme price risk with time varying volatility via Monte Carlo simulation instead of square‐root‐of time rule. The results show that, first, benefits from risk diversification is significant; second, long‐term extreme price risk measure of inventory portfolio via Monte Carlo method outperforms the square‐root‐of time rule; the last is that the dynamic rate interval based on the long‐term price risk is superior to the crude rules of thumb in terms of reducing efficiency loss and improving risk coverage. In summary, this article provides a new quantitative framework for managing the risk of portfolio in inventory financing practice for banks constrained by risk limitation. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 20: 17–34, 2015     

需求率为斜坡型的一类变质性物品最优库存策略

本文在考虑需求率服从斜坡型分布的情况下,研究了允许缺货且缺货完全回补、变质率服从威布尔分布、补货率为无穷、有限计划期内的库存模型,证明了最优补货策略的存在性,并给出了求解最优补货策略的算法.